NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Texas Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fdd849f6fa001faf2ca3eedcf04925cf26b782a37cb18b2fc1e4d10cd5296b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Wolvesof Chicago Wolves, Texas Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Stars | 37c | 589.59$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.39 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Wolves | 56c | 474.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chicago Wolves | 45c | 413.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.97 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Wolves | 58c | 366.25$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…a3bebacked Texas Stars | 72c | 266.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Texas Stars | 49c | 234.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas Stars | 36c | 198$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Wolves | 51c | 138.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Stars | 46c | 108.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Texas Stars | 34c | 107.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 94.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Chicago Wolves | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…711cbacked Chicago Wolves | 53c | 75.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Texas Stars | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Texas Stars | 67c | 51.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Texas Stars | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Texas Stars | 55c | 38.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Chicago Wolves | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Texas Stars | 53c | 33.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Chicago Wolves | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 91 | 78%71 W · 20 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Chicago Wolves | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Texas Stars | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.