Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x601f8bbe04628aaca9d7d56a59e84bb698bbe0b8d3b52755b8c6cfc901450de5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 5c | 1,045$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 631.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…92bcbacked Yes | 24c | 532.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 428.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 3c | 334.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 49c | 306.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 160.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 128.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 113.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 34c | 111.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 39c | 105.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 44c | 100.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 89.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…1997backed Yes | 30c | 79.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 24c | 78.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 77.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 26c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 48c | 54.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd370…dc49backed Yes | 26c | 54.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed No | 62c | 46.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 48c | 45.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 45.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 68c | 41.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 36.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 35.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 34.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 30.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…8d5dbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed Yes | 43c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.