Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6068433140e6fc2a2df86c28660fa5a6dfccd33c8728f2ad8516e894ef6dcdd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 12c | 7,815$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Yes | 10c | 3,935$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 3,150$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 1,069$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…a5b0backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 13c | 748.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 11c | 673.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 9c | 411.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…d2ecbacked Yes | 13c | 407.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 322.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes | 13c | 256.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 13c | 224.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 9c | 183$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -11.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…9fccbacked Yes | 15c | 170.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 13c | 161.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 12c | 155.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 10c | 144.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…388ebacked Yes | 9c | 131.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb0…e4fcbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…7374backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.