Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdafc82322497e6f1015d47f8909031792c85a64f1a20275df3b9372acb6a6b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 1,634$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.19 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 1,482$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.8 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 79c | 1,391$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 53c | 1,266$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.47 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 58c | 1,102$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 7c | 882.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 17c | 404.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.21 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…b1fbbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 333.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 332.62$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.82 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 26c | 326.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.92 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 8c | 256.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 60c | 240$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 219$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 8c | 199.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 60c | 157.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes | 15c | 155.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 140$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 17c | 131.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 43c | 121.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 17c | 88.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 87.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 24c | 84.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 59c | 71.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 16c | 67.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 61.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked No | 72c | 52.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 48.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 65c | 45.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 69c | 41.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -11.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c4…eb56backed Yes | 51c | 41.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 78c | 34.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…2cacbacked Yes | 51c | 31.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…a77dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…2d4bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.