WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606c1e9a3b9083a445f6c786cccaed07fd183620351ff00b7a6e796e3f93f949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 5c | 8,220$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.96 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Connecticut Sun | 9c | 5,400$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.03 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Connecticut Sun | 12c | 3,958$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.92 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Connecticut Sun | 11c | 1,968$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.14 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Connecticut Sun | 11c | 1,370$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Connecticut Sun | 10c | 1,262$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…a1babacked Connecticut Sun | 11c | 1,099$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Connecticut Sun | 5c | 1,071$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Connecticut Sun | 6c | 1,025$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Connecticut Sun | 8c | 1,018$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed Connecticut Sun | 10c | 995$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…fa16backed Connecticut Sun | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…5e72backed Connecticut Sun | 10c | 771.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Connecticut Sun | 12c | 725.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Connecticut Sun | 9c | 453.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Connecticut Sun | 9c | 450.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Connecticut Sun | 9c | 438.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Connecticut Sun | 11c | 419.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Connecticut Sun | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Connecticut Sun | 11c | 365.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Connecticut Sun | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 8c | 350.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Connecticut Sun | 9c | 338.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 74c | 305.34$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Connecticut Sun | 10c | 254.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Connecticut Sun | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Connecticut Sun | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…3564backed Connecticut Sun | 8c | 230.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…ceabbacked Connecticut Sun | 12c | 209.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Connecticut Sun | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Connecticut Sun | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Connecticut Sun | 9c | 187.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Connecticut Sun | 10c | 182.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…3a2fbacked Connecticut Sun | 10c | 154.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Connecticut Sun | 11c | 113.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…38d2backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…67b6backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Las Vegas Aces | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sunthis page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.