WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f16b66f0123f1fc71a3c67c5779caa0ada0f289f7cae0a6180f1b544f14028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Las Vegas Aces, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 2,371$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.7 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,574$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.47 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 640$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 408.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.15 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 355.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 248.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 166.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 100.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 80.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 75.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Connecticut Sun | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 65.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 63.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 44.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 29.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut SunLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.