CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6095daf2411167fac3fc10fdfc7009a942a9d8304b536bae81e5f7f6833da633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof NIP, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Alliance | 56c | 1,927$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.45 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Alliance | 51c | 1,000$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.7 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed NIP | 43c | 890.7$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed NIP | 44c | 888.64$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked NIP | 49c | 883.01$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.01 | 198 | 57.6%114 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed NIP | 47c | 554.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Alliance | 52c | 466.67$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Alliance | 50c | 317.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…e6c2backed NIP | 50c | 230.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked NIP | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Alliance | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…8a80backed NIP | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…3bbebacked NIP | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 384 | 52.1%200 W · 184 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Alliance | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed NIP | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed NIP | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed NIP | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Alliance | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed NIP | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs NIP (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group StageAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.