Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d483b66926aae00b3b776c3d64bd0dceaeadbdaea5a477e6297b82d4276976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 762.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 78c | 508.86$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 22c | 463.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 73c | 269.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 255.55$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 240.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 230.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 200.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 184.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 177.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 153.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 127.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 38c | 125.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 124.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 106.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 31c | 103.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 100.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 100.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 26c | 97.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 93.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 27c | 93.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 41c | 91.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 88.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 83.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 70.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 30c | 68.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed No | 73c | 66.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 74c | 66.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 75c | 64.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 64c | 64.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 29c | 61.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 43c | 61.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 26c | 60.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 73c | 51.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 50.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 69c | 49.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 47.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 33c | 46.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 75c | 44.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked Yes | 45c | 42.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 78c | 38.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 74c | 36.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed No | 75c | 36.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 35.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 77c | 34.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 76c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 39c | 32.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked No | 76c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed Yes | 35c | 29.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…2015backed No | 79c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.