TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No27c766.85$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes75c549.6$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3316144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes38c414.12$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes50c412.24$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c371.95$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes44c336.94$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8329640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes70c287.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b05…d7a7backed No53c265.47$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.913366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No33c235.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7620342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes69c217.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2237644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes78c195.62$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.691,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes37c174.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.441618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes77c160.93$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.529428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes45c156.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes46c151.88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.771,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No9c147.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1834617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No37c145.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.394,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes44c136.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.835736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c136.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.613,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c124.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.113,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c118.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d90…d388backed No55c111.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c102.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.671,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c99.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c99.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.551,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes39c98.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5844147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes39c97.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes69c96.88$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.124148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes34c93.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.641,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes49c89.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.527536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2326426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d56…a397backed No48c80.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes34c72.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.392,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No56c69.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9327464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes46c64.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No57c63.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.191,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes76c61.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.813554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No54c57.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.061,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No59c57.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No51c56.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.641,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No60c55.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0514961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes66c53.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.044744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No55c52.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7416740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes35c50.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.561,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes66c49.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.062,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes79c49.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5319047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c49.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.047,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes47c47.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes39c47.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0331442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No40c47.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No45c46.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.784,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No70c43.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1819152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No55c40.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.869122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked Yes48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.89433%31 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No35c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes42c39.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0115639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No66c39.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No71c37.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6611151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No51c37.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes39c36.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes35c36.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.738561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes45c36.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0112337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5816832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.082343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes41c29.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c29.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c28.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes72c28.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0220144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed No52c27.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.286018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes48c27.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.091,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes42c26.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.429530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes40c26.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8730046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No60c25.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.228851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x318b…d827backed No57c25.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No63c25.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.869858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d92…ab61backed Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No79c24.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.577166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1936…a066backed Yes45c23.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3410…f999backed No43c23.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked No49c23.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No63c22.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2413053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes69c21.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No60c21.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.587034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2000…2501backed No69c20.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e9…bd8cbacked No60c20.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No59c18.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0116639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes60c16.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.792,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.