Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18cb3b359cbf26bf4000466685e53f2727246ee1eb57778a1971c73d617786a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 793.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 32c | 519.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 11c | 467.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 430.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 370.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 368.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 351.88$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 299.67$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 292.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 18c | 280.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 76c | 268.03$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 18c | 240.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 222.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 204.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 157.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 156.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 150.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 141.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 123.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 22c | 123.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 37c | 121.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 121.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 116.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 110.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 107.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 27c | 103.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 166 | 44%73 W · 93 L | +15.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 102.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 17c | 101.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 20c | 93.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 92.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 86.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 85.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 19c | 83.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 23c | 70.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 23c | 69.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 66.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 18c | 66.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…547fbacked Yes | 35c | 60.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 21c | 59.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 43c | 52.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked Yes | 21c | 48.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 72c | 43.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 40.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 76c | 39.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 77c | 31.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 80c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 67c | 19.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 75c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…4a8ebacked No | 79c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.