South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610e95b8c7a232a6f4cd0acbcd8c7ac64f22f8dd0287f99e0d75a1a0f6220fb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 39c | 9,996$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.64 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 4,760$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 3,228$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.81 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 1,965$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.46 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 32c | 1,218$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.48 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 22c | 495.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 300.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 39c | 254.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 64c | 233.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 201.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 166.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 36c | 88.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 64c | 75.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…df71backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 65c | 46.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 62c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.