South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33894fff478051ed11f33310934888c434e4ca0a8e857ce5712dd0a3b235485b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 71c | 2,521$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.2 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 24c | 2,014$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 459.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 354.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 2,177 | 43.5%948 W · 1,229 L | -57.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Over | 11c | 302.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 4c | 299$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 565 | 37.5%212 W · 353 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 23c | 159.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 270 | 65.6%177 W · 93 L | +49.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 11c | 150.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 136.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 86.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 23c | 81.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 337 | 58.5%197 W · 140 L | +32.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 20c | 50.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 29c | 45.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…6939backed Over | 35c | 38.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 32.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 79c | 23.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 72c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.