South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c4960bce699a03411731498de92ce4cbbfb077bd6542c4de49359b866711b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 39c | 4,674$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 4,340$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…eda0backed Over | 76c | 2,385$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Under | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.57 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 55c | 1,245$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.1 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 74c | 1,200$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.98 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 25c | 897.31$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 28c | 779.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.06 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 565.72$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.55 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 76c | 524.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 507.55$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.14 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 25c | 398.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.79 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 73c | 385.37$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 13c | 383.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 26c | 376.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.58 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 333.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Under | 66c | 325.59$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 319.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…ce0abacked Over | 61c | 297.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 297.39$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 68c | 294.26$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under | 26c | 235.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 70c | 200.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 44c | 168.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 80c | 167.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 65c | 130.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 78c | 123.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 17c | 119.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Under | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 72c | 106.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 44c | 102.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed Over | 66c | 101.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 79c | 93.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 92.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed Under | 26c | 82.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 65c | 64.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 22c | 56.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 77c | 48.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Under | 56c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 61c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.