AI · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6127e51d6d6d3d5a21abb9c1c8139daa2b1ec6d85d24729ea1eb087b5412a18d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 36c | 594.19$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.71 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 57c | 259.92$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…0c25backed Yes | 42c | 109$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…6593backed Yes | 65c | 47.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed Yes | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…ab5abacked Yes | 50c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Yes | 64c | 39.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 62c | 36.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed No | 67c | 33.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Yes | 44c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…791abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed7…a702backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.