NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61293748c40a35ce03b4090e36a6dfed691e36031bca7bbb875fc39d4398885f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bfa…c28fbacked Pistons | 45c | 4,238$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…f99ebacked Pistons | 44c | 836$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…3552backed Magic | 56c | 769$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…42f8backed Magic | 56c | 753$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…3a70backed Pistons | 44c | 745$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…cbe5backed Magic | 56c | 694$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…d549backed Pistons | 44c | 686$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…51c5backed Magic | 56c | 685$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…8993backed Pistons | 44c | 634$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…917fbacked Magic | 55c | 574$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…70cdbacked Magic | 55c | 563$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bf…51e8backed Pistons | 45c | 560$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d6…bdf6backed Magic | 55c | 543$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…9f6bbacked Magic | 55c | 536$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…0849backed Magic | 55c | 532$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…77d4backed Magic | 55c | 524$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281b…e974backed Magic | 55c | 518$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…cddfbacked Magic | 55c | 516$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…5c7abacked Pistons | 45c | 475$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b84…8e08backed Magic | 55c | 406$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…dd0ebacked Magic | 55c | 398$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 6c | 249.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pistons | 45c | 249$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…5a26backed Magic | 55c | 231$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pistons | 46c | 228$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 55c | 219$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Magic | 57c | 176.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Pistons | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Pistons | 41c | 94.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Magic | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pistons | 45c | 80.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Pistons | 43c | 63.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Pistons | 44c | 56.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Magic | 54c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pistons | 44c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…0960backed Pistons | 46c | 33.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…d964backed Magic | 56c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 55c | 32.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Magic | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)this page
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.