CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612d4e6ed6f05ea93fdfb4fec95535d47a0daaf0ad31f906b6e1afa082347fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, SemperFi Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,083 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64fe…187fbacked SemperFi Esports | 55c | 2,596$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…9447backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 45c | 2,596$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports | 68c | 615.83$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.95 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed SemperFi Esports | 67c | 324.29$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 33c | 303.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 45c | 167.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 32c | 130.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16c | 87.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…f0a4backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 48c | 82.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 78.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,051 | 57.2%601 W · 450 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 216 | 23.6%51 W · 165 L | -27.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…9b3ebacked SemperFi Esports | 73c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked SemperFi Esports | 75c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 486 | 52.3%254 W · 232 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked SemperFi Esports | 71c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…1754backed SemperFi Esports | 75c | 27.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed SemperFi Esports | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.