Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61457071dad4775d8af2990fe044aae69d258c7e4b1fb3163dae0413a8942dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tōkyō Verdyof Urawa Red Diamonds, Tōkyō Verdy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 14c | 602.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 23c | 463.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 109$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 28c | 76.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 28c | 76.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 28c | 76.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 75.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 75.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 75.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 74.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 64.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 64.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 63.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 25c | 55.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 48.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 44.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 44.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 44.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…9fb7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 35.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 35.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…3eabbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 76c | 31.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Tōkyō Verdy | 75c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad02…221abacked Tōkyō Verdy | 76c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Tōkyō Verdy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.