Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd3f166b20c5504656adcc04e20525b7be511c29c48478f28f872acfc8549d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 39c | 5,855$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.79 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,182$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 62c | 1,749$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.06 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 59c | 848.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.05 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 732$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.12 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 59c | 732$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 355.15$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 275.44$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 68c | 239.23$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 73c | 159.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 62c | 159$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 72c | 155.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 73c | 146.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 64c | 135.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 64c | 129.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 17c | 116.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 37c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 72c | 99.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 98.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 64c | 86.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 72c | 86.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 72c | 86.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 16c | 85.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 66.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 20c | 60.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 75c | 56.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 63c | 50.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 63c | 50.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 64c | 48.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 71c | 41.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 64c | 39.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 63c | 35.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 63c | 35.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 64c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 64c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 62c | 28.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 63c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 68c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Under | 62c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.