Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754e62fb5aee02511829ad968ce1ca5114b33a30abc20ece89903a484ba25953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 57c | 7,040$4,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 45c | 4,208$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 3,858$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.88 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 62c | 2,335$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 1,088$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.02 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 68c | 735.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 69c | 725.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 47c | 643.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 56c | 538.25$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.86 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 42c | 487.57$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 32c | 415.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 32c | 395.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 32c | 390$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 127.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 42c | 99.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 55c | 95.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Over | 43c | 73.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 44c | 60.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9b…0188backed Over | 55c | 54.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 70c | 50.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…fceebacked Over | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 32.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed Over | 56c | 31.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 38c | 28.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.