College Football · resolved market
Memphis vs. Georgia State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6146efa8edcafc5af908c54b600b972e6afb84a8b2c138fcf082f324ed6552db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Memphisof Memphis, Georgia State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Georgia State | 16c | 6,355$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Georgia State | 16c | 3,464$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.18 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Memphis | 79c | 3,378$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.97 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Georgia State | 23c | 1,390$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Georgia State | 18c | 1,200$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Georgia State | 23c | 945$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Georgia State | 29c | 544.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…80f8backed Georgia State | 21c | 416.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Memphis | 74c | 407.65$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Georgia State | 24c | 288.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Memphis | 76c | 257$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Georgia State | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Georgia State | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Georgia State | 17c | 108.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Georgia State | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Georgia State | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Memphis vs. Georgia Statethis page
- Spread: Memphis (-13.5)Memphis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.