Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61484aa37b350b75986fdc90403af0cc4a9fc6e88d13509e36a81e3841dfdb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 57c | 184$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 154.5this page
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 151.5Over won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 152.5Over won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-6.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-7.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-8.5)Mercer Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.