Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe16548c715e1880b1d9d7b66984bc9898dfaf56f750bf051e46406fb76ef9442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 55c | 222$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 54c | 128$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 54c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 54c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 153.5this page
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 151.5Over won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 152.5Over won
- Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-6.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-7.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Washington State Cougars (-8.5)Mercer Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.