Spread: Washington State Cougars (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d54064340c2eff05c5dba4af72e23178e46088c75f38d894c09e8a7abd01ae

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mercer Bearsof Washington State Cougars, Mercer Bears
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,362 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xea81…eeaebacked Washington State Cougars	41c	360.62$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.56	1,227	27.8%341 W · 886 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mercer Bears	59c	267$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.28	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mercer Bears	55c	146$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.7	918	48.9%449 W · 469 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Mercer Bears	56c	110$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.4	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Mercer Bears	56c	104$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.76	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Mercer Bears	56c	99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.56	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x320f…b4a3backed Mercer Bears	57c	81$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.83	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Mercer Bears	56c	63$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.72	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Washington State Cougars	43c	58.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Mercer Bears	56c	58$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.52	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Washington State Cougars	44c	55.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Mercer Bears	56c	55$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.2	70	60%42 W · 28 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Washington State Cougars	44c	55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Washington State Cougars	43c	42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+5.0wins	+0.22per pick	52cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9af9…89bcbacked Washington State Cougars	44c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Washington State Cougars	44c	32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears	57c	31.92$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.81	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Mercer Bears	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	449	55.2%248 W · 201 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Washington State Cougars	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Mercer Bears	56c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.32	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Washington State Cougars	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Washington State Cougars	44c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Washington State Cougars	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67de…1d9bbacked Washington State Cougars	43c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Washington State Cougars (-8.5)this page
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State CougarsWashington State Cougars won
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 151.5Over won
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 152.5Over won
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 153.5Over won
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars: O/U 154.5Over won
Spread: Washington State Cougars (-6.5)Mercer Bears won
Spread: Washington State Cougars (-7.5)Mercer Bears won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Washington State Cougars (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event