TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington State Cougarsof Mercer Bears, Washington State Cougars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,600
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,600 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437c…f458backed Washington State Cougars75c8,500$6,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1257251.4%37 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Mercer Bears25c4,652$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16389850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears25c1,609$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.2312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7e…c09cbacked Mercer Bears2c924.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mercer Bears26c836.76$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.953,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Mercer Bears25c700$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17529444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Washington State Cougars76c663.2$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.631,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Washington State Cougars73c591.45$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.721,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mercer Bears25c556.55$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1474649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Mercer Bears27c507$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.891,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Mercer Bears18c413.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.121,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington State Cougars76c400.03$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.151,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mercer Bears25c380.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.692,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Mercer Bears27c306.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8117740.7%72 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mercer Bears25c166.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.611,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington State Cougars72c136$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.085,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Washington State Cougars79c127$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.351,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Mercer Bears16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204318.6%8 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Mercer Bears26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mercer Bears19c76.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.614,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Mercer Bears28c60.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8749043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Mercer Bears28c57.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.189838.8%38 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Washington State Cougars72c57.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.184,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Mercer Bears25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f1…907dbacked Mercer Bears25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Mercer Bears25c47.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95450%27 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Mercer Bears25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Washington State Cougars74c36.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.535152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington State Cougars76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.891,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.