College Football · resolved market
Spread: Utah State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61553978042d8697b6a21a5681eadaecbf1295b86b3ffba49dcbc065568180a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah Stateof Utah State, San Jose State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Utah State | 55c | 8,748$4,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970.98 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked San Jose State | 53c | 8,446$4,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,476.55 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Utah State | 50c | 5,425$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.5 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked San Jose State | 49c | 5,125$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.51 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Utah State | 47c | 4,209$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…af84backed San Jose State | 48c | 3,613$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…c543backed Utah State | 52c | 3,613$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Utah State | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Utah State | 47c | 2,050$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.37 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked San Jose State | 50c | 1,962$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.46 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Jose State | 47c | 1,780$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Jose State | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed San Jose State | 50c | 1,375$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.5 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked San Jose State | 48c | 1,327$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.96 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Jose State | 45c | 921$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.2 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed San Jose State | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Utah State | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked San Jose State | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…dc3cbacked San Jose State | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…c36cbacked Utah State | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed San Jose State | 47c | 315$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed San Jose State | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Jose State | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed San Jose State | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…6821backed Utah State | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State (-3.5)this page
- O/U 64.5Under won
- San Jose State vs. Utah StateUtah State won
- San Jose State vs. Utah State: O/U 61.5Under won
- San Jose State vs. Utah State: O/U 62.5Under won
- San Jose State vs. Utah State: O/U 63.5Under won
- Spread: Utah State (-4.5)Utah State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.