Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Taiki Takizawa vs Kosuke Ogura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61737bfbe9348f33188b12934237b12701f7001de196b4376827a21c273a5acd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taiki Takizawaof Taiki Takizawa, Kosuke Ogura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kosuke Ogura | 32c | 2,927$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.23 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kosuke Ogura | 52c | 320.37$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Taiki Takizawa | 35c | 294.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.57 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Taiki Takizawa | 72c | 277.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 313 | 55.3%173 W · 140 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 228$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Taiki Takizawa | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Taiki Takizawa | 70c | 114.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Kosuke Ogura | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Kosuke Ogura | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 88.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Taiki Takizawa | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Taiki Takizawa | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Taiki Takizawa | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kosuke Ogura | 15c | 70.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Taiki Takizawa | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 340 | 52.1%177 W · 163 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Kosuke Ogura | 65c | 63.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Kosuke Ogura | 33c | 55.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 146 | 44.5%65 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Taiki Takizawa | 35c | 51.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1,107 | 52.8%585 W · 522 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Taiki Takizawa | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Taiki Takizawa | 36c | 46.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Kosuke Ogura | 63c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 312 | 37.8%118 W · 194 L | -24.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Taiki Takizawa | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Taiki Takizawa | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Taiki Takizawa | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 418 | 51.7%216 W · 202 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Taiki Takizawa | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Taiki Takizawa | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 215 | 54%116 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Taiki Takizawa | 36c | 32.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Taiki Takizawa | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Kosuke Ogura | 43c | 24.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083d…10a1backed Kosuke Ogura | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…ae38backed Taiki Takizawa | 76c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.