Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6175e762f9a3b7f9c3da7520c2ab1313d2dcce18eef2a4ea51f99743258ac8f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,873 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Zhang | 50c | 8,030$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,014.74 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Cirstea | 50c | 3,758$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Cirstea | 50c | 1,517$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.3 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cirstea | 50c | 1,107$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.75 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Cirstea | 50c | 1,070$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Zhang | 44c | 781.2$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.12 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cirstea | 49c | 713.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Cirstea | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Zhang | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cirstea | 48c | 188.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cirstea | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cirstea | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Zhang | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Cirstea | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Zhang | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cirstea | 70c | 47.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Cirstea | 58c | 31.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Zhang | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Cirstea | 50c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Cirstea | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…89efbacked Cirstea | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Shuai Zhang vs Sorana CirsteaSorana Cirstea won
- Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs CirsteaCirstea won
- Shuai Zhang vs. Sorana Cirstea: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Zhang vs. Cirstea: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Zhang vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.