Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Shakhtar Donetsk?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61820bdcf957141b3213d2a60ad9b8a808a8226ca89479be9baa30f6fa1eff71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 30c | 6,698$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 70c | 4,641$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.39 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.5 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 70c | 1,313$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.02 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 26c | 1,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 11c | 681.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 26c | 475.77$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 26c | 452.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed Yes | 70c | 373.51$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…6a2abacked Yes | 73c | 340.95$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 26c | 288$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 27c | 235.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 26c | 119.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…1996backed Yes | 73c | 117.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…4d82backed No | 30c | 83.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 28c | 53.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…50dfbacked Yes | 70c | 31.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…a142backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…e284backed Yes | 71c | 29.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182c…deddbacked Yes | 72c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a263backed Yes | 71c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 69c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…b739backed Yes | 70c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…4128backed Yes | 71c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…718fbacked Yes | 71c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…c7e5backed Yes | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Shakhtar Donetsk?this page
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Borussia Dortmund?No won
- Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.