Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61829dfda42a1bb6bd30086b0861af3fbb368ba1c9650d6e15498db3a170392f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 1,023$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 624.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 396.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.31 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 303.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 247.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.24 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 218.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 50c | 209.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 49c | 191.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 185.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 13c | 173.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 9c | 154.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 135.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 14c | 116.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 93.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 88.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 84.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 80.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 72.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 72.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 23c | 51.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 59c | 48.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 45.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 44.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 77c | 40.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 71c | 40.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 35.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 25.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 20.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 15.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.