MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x618d7c77fb09eae151f849bb75faf5b0625bada4dece036c7319235d751915ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 3,258$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 1,939$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.63 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 1,211$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.28 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 583.44$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 494.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 414.39$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 359.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 323$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 269.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 235.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 206.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 204.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 177.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 161.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 158.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 153.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 102.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 85.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…af88backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 61.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 57.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 57.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 54.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 53.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 53.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 53.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 51.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 37.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 28.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…ac30backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 26.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington NationalsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-7.5)Washington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.