TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Los Angeles Dodgers73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08051756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals27c3,258$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.76,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers52c1,939$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.631,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Washington Nationals48c1,211$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.2814156%79 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers54c583.44$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3841152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Washington Nationals49c494.59$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.356150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bde…b181backed Washington Nationals47c414.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.761844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals48c359.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.592,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals46c323$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.581,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers52c269.57$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.922,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals46c235.81$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.475,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals28c206.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.635,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Washington Nationals49c204.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9921847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Washington Nationals27c177.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8278146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Washington Nationals46c177$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4275049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals48c161.68$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.566551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals27c158.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.741,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Los Angeles Dodgers54c153.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4118048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals29c102.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.642,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers54c85.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.856149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c3…af88backed Washington Nationals48c61.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals48c60.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0646659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers52c57.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7111245.5%51 W · 61 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers52c57.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.717354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Washington Nationals47c54.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6167849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Los Angeles Dodgers52c53.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.18847.7%42 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Los Angeles Dodgers52c53.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.19255.4%51 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Los Angeles Dodgers52c53.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.17746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Los Angeles Dodgers52c51.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7419452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals48c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.647848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3832647.9%156 W · 170 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers71c37.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.834,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4233051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acd…66d4backed Los Angeles Dodgers51c36.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.724755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals48c28.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5689950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfef3…ac30backed Washington Nationals47c26.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.665650%28 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Los Angeles Dodgers72c24.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.971,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Los Angeles Dodgers53c23.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.274060%24 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Los Angeles Dodgers71c23.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.930454.3%165 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers61c20.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0525452%132 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers71c20.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8726854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.