Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a96cf621869f3769be8f194772ad105e2493e4bf0c744d7a5db51c7651944a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 541.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 283.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 172.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 12c | 160.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 16c | 144.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 9c | 111.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 85.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 85.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 84.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 26c | 81.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 77c | 71.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 70.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 69.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 66.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 54c | 54.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 24c | 54.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 47.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 46.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 38c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 41c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 28.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.