TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c900.03$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No70c319.87$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7581558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No67c302.38$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3826265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No8c296.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No14c248.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x00fe…52e2backed No64c235.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes30c195.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.191,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c195.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.383,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c194.82$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes32c190.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3858732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No55c172.13$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c166.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes30c160.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6913834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No74c154$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6228368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes29c115$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.11,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No72c110$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes71c108.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed No53c107.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2825332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No32c107.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4874926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa110…dc18backed Yes20c105.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.353534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c104.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes44c100.87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0918328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c100.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.74,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7134831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No57c90.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1428035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes49c88.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.642,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes47c88.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.771,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c87.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c86.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.134,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes50c82.62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.272,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes30c78.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes65c75.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5812350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes64c70.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.582,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes40c68.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8127037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No70c66.64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.541,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed No70c63.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7524141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes46c63.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No27c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.012,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2899…6ee3backed No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.840132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes48c58.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.262,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No74c58.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0640162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes28c56.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.652,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes21c56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1634935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No40c54.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.046,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c53.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4017940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes42c48.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.122,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x690e…8e12backed No62c48.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.75580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No69c46.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes43c43.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.042,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No70c43.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2959144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd33e…8736backed Yes34c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.313554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes46c41.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes62c40.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4710744.9%48 W · 59 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes27c40.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.359139.6%36 W · 55 L+12.2wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes48c38.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.062,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes31c38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.361,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes59c35.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.732,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes48c30.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.592,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No47c26.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes45c25.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.892,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No67c25.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes75c23.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.797057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No78c23.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0249359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes58c20.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.582,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7513637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.641752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No67c18.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5424569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c17.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c16.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.864,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No70c14.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.