Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0424228bd18f36c3a3c0a09c3a930f98c6166c8b7a6433fec4a6167310411513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 15c | 367.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 56c | 272.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 43c | 242$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 236.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 147.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 119.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 111.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 107.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 99.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 22c | 90.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 86.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 77.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 52c | 76.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 45c | 66.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 62.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 57c | 61.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 56.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 57c | 55.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690e…8e12backed No | 76c | 54.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…bafcbacked Yes | 51c | 53.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3451backed No | 51c | 51.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 20c | 51.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…3783backed Yes | 50c | 41.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…e320backed No | 52c | 41.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…cf41backed No | 52c | 35.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…b6efbacked Yes | 50c | 35.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 65c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…f34cbacked No | 55c | 26.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 25.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 25.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 53c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 22.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…dc3abacked No | 51c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 65c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 17.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.