Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61dec1e8cfadf7b822c9820ba9d4111fc04afb3696ade1ad219869d09aee3674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 3c | 551.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…73f7backed Yes | 5c | 325$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b72fbacked Yes | 5c | 311$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 266.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 79c | 253$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 74c | 196.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 84.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…eb65backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 74.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 30c | 56.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 37.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 66c | 37.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?this page
- Will Clint Twedt-Ball be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?No won
- Will Kathy Dolter be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.