Mls · resolved market
Will Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6212b8ca3b793a79e61d20636ba7930fd755b5c70cf5714436077bbd86b0a0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,349 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 4,469$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…1023backed No | 78c | 4,198$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 15c | 985$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 11c | 778.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 694.19$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 23c | 598$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 23c | 505.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 77c | 324$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 52c | 255.59$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 22c | 238.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 143.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 25c | 128$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 121$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 45.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 28.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 77c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 79c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.