NFL · resolved market
Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 5 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6214f8910de87a666b2ca93d98e5f245838bbadad86bbd8f83bd6a9a1253e163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Commanders | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…4c22backed Eagles | 54c | 1,825$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Commanders | 53c | 1,810$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.26 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Eagles | 47c | 1,145$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.6 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…fb79backed Eagles | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Commanders | 50c | 850$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Commanders | 44c | 775.39$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.17 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Eagles | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Eagles | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Eagles | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Commanders | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd28…37a1backed Commanders | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Commanders | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Eagles | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Eagles beat the Commanders by 5 or more points?this page
- Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 49 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.