MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6223140ff27861a879fe6221812b28895b46c93dfb0324c946da480a68fcab0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…a64fbacked No | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed No | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 42c | 36.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 45c | 31.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…cf21backed No | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 74c | 29.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 43c | 28.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angelsthis page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.