Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62574886f7d2030b40cc2198633dac2238af47008361c3e89ee6d3d3f775d113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 571.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 499.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 422.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 79c | 304.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 289.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 214.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 205.63$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 22c | 169.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 18c | 163.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 153.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 137.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 135.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 23c | 131.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 17c | 115$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 102.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 91.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 16c | 89.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 87.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 80c | 83.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 82.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 82.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 79.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 76.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 72.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 17c | 70.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 19c | 67.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 62.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 61.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 60.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 19c | 54.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 21c | 53.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 22c | 51.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 21c | 51.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 45.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 76c | 37.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 80c | 36.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 72c | 32.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 31.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 74c | 29.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 72c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…67b6backed No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.