Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c53ada308d7d2a057ef5a4e5e03692a53d451cda66297de63b3e6fa2cd0e205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 11c | 967.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 76c | 252.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 174.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 47c | 155.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 69c | 144.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 70c | 142.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 139.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 34c | 122.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 121.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 114.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 34c | 112.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 107.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 105.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 76c | 99.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 98.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 66c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 94.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 68c | 88.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 84.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 36c | 84.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 54c | 82.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 31c | 78.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 64c | 73.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 72.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…4bb0backed No | 53c | 71.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 28c | 64.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 70c | 56.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 55.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 30c | 53.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 45c | 49.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 64c | 48.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 50c | 44.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 49c | 43.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 29c | 41.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 51c | 37.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 36c | 37.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 36.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 35.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 35.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 50c | 34.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 52c | 33.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 31.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 30.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 79c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…0968backed Yes | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 49c | 28.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 28.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 71c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 53c | 25.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…cc23backed Yes | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 64c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 69c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 64c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.