Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs PuckChamp (BO1) - BLAST Slam Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6259f76be617ab2f4e76f1af67bff95cb8b1371c46d7dab8b6e28da6ac616a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked PuckChamp | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked summer bear | 54c | 958.58$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.25 | 801 | 59.1%473 W · 328 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…c0ddbacked PuckChamp | 34c | 808.2$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked PuckChamp | 46c | 647.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…9536backed summer bear | 79c | 426.48$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked PuckChamp | 67c | 337.38$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.04 | 669 | 48.4%324 W · 345 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 28c | 285.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 1,707 | 41.2%704 W · 1,003 L | -43.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked summer bear | 77c | 205$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 921 | 56.5%520 W · 401 L | +78.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…db1ebacked summer bear | 58c | 203.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 54c | 181.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1,461 | 48.5%709 W · 752 L | +28.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked summer bear | 79c | 160.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked PuckChamp | 66c | 151.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 61.1%217 W · 138 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked PuckChamp | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 405 | 42.2%171 W · 234 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed PuckChamp | 34c | 127.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3b…2921backed PuckChamp | 28c | 106.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…035bbacked PuckChamp | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PuckChamp | 64c | 95.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 1,263 | 49.6%627 W · 636 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PuckChamp | 36c | 72.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,834 | 43.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L | -39.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed PuckChamp | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 345 | 43.8%151 W · 194 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…c07dbacked summer bear | 73c | 44.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed summer bear | 80c | 40.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed PuckChamp | 34c | 40.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed summer bear | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked summer bear | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked PuckChamp | 53c | 27.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…75c2backed summer bear | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PuckChamp | 65c | 16.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 937 | 46.3%434 W · 503 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.