NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629245cff6d3073e4cb6f3d93b45ea7efd5a68f7619f036898e4b96983eae5ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Under | 57c | 8,591$4,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.98 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 4,787$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.03 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 33c | 4,375$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.27 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 56c | 3,852$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.85 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 1,782$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 1,016$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.96 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 55c | 943.51$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.93 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…9df5backed Under | 55c | 833.49$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 818.65$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.74 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 444$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Under | 63c | 438.6$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Over | 24c | 383$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.74 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 377$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 29c | 359.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Under | 55c | 304.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 290.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 27c | 179.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.32 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Under | 77c | 157.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 45c | 110.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Over | 43c | 87.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 83.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…f279backed Over | 47c | 64.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Under | 66c | 57.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 45c | 47.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked Under | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabe…ff32backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Over | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. PredatorsPredators won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.