Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62aa257be08e0d622891da40adbec9f108f086f55efab0797b356be1c2aa0db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 4,721$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 3,652$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.83 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 1,659$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.92 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 40c | 1,352$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.18 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed L1ga Team | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed VP.Prodigy | 78c | 865$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 659.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.74 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 504.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.81 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed L1ga Team | 61c | 501.07$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.45 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 282$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked L1ga Team | 56c | 194.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed L1ga Team | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…16c6backed L1ga Team | 31c | 163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked VP.Prodigy | 35c | 153$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked VP.Prodigy | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 94.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed L1ga Team | 70c | 71.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…6d4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked VP.Prodigy | 38c | 34.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 30.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed L1ga Team | 73c | 30.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed L1ga Team | 55c | 24.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed L1ga Team | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.