MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63137f0cd341d15e8411458dd147f808413b5c56ccebf3edf6e6c2914ae335e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 9,429$5,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.66 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 5,660$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.17 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 2,286$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.27 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 1,070$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.73 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 366.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.68 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 302.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 292.3$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 288.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 73.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-8.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.