MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ff6ddfa7dcfb10c298625379f925cfe4a16ae773d12f67216893c86d08a2a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 4,678$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 54c | 3,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 32c | 1,622$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 690.05$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 71c | 604.9$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 57c | 599.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 287.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…2ecbbacked Over | 50c | 231.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 56c | 222.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 143.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 57c | 139.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 132.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 45c | 130.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Over | 54c | 90.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Over | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 57c | 69.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 71c | 59.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…b9d9backed Under | 43c | 56.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 56.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 55c | 54.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 44c | 45.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 41.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 27.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 45c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 46c | 26.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 54c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 43c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-8.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.