MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9d5abae8a82e3ee3709969596ae0bf8cec3671df5ff6b3dd76b173cf671691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 55c | 32,210$17,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,715.46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 47c | 25,866$12,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,260.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 23,977$12,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,441.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 21,282$9,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,705.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 10,667$4,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,791.98 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Over | 46c | 6,517$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 53c | 5,776$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 54c | 4,753$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.48 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 4,215$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 4,140$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.99 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 2,713$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.63 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 2,092$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 2,048$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 1,828$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.71 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 45c | 1,600$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 46c | 1,359$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 1,009$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 53c | 943.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 53c | 699.99$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 40c | 637.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.02 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 585$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 45c | 545.91$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.25 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Over | 47c | 532.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 501.92$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.03 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 499.98$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 35c | 495$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 452$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.82 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 439$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 305$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 304$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 270.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 231.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 52c | 191.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 179.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 167.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 25c | 165.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 49c | 151.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 136.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 122.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…8bc9backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 49c | 97.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…2ecbbacked Over | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 55c | 80.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Under | 54c | 73.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Over | 47c | 72.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 74c | 63.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Under | 54c | 59.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 56c | 56.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 50.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 46c | 37.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 54c | 37.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 71c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 44c | 32.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 55c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 47c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 21.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 57c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-8.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.