Tennis · resolved market
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6320c5694abb0024f6381b69dd3419db7ea37c4a7bea46dcb91c72f4f7e67315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nikita Mashtakovof Nikita Mashtakov, Nicolas Jadoun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Nicolas Jadoun | 15c | 1,217$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 984.15$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.88 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…06d4backed Nicolas Jadoun | 24c | 975$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 900$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Nicolas Jadoun | 24c | 900$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…1eb3backed Nicolas Jadoun | 25c | 788.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 41.3%74 W · 105 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Nicolas Jadoun | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 74c | 418.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 385.42$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed Nicolas Jadoun | 25c | 306.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nikita Mashtakov | 75c | 255.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nikita Mashtakov | 77c | 174.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nikita Mashtakov | 75c | 153$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Nicolas Jadoun | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Nikita Mashtakov | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nicolas Jadoun | 12c | 119.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Nicolas Jadoun | 23c | 75.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nikita Mashtakov | 80c | 49.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Nicolas Jadoun | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nikita Mashtakov | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Nikita Mashtakov | 74c | 32.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Nikita Mashtakov | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.