TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,890 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs57c658.66$374 inWon+$284.232,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs61c612.24$372 inWon+$240.144,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates40c459.74$185 inLost-$184.971,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates58c351.8$206 inLost-$205.75,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Pittsburgh Pirates18c217.42$39 inLost-$39.1318651.1%95 W · 91 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago Cubs74c215.58$159 inWon+$56.211,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates60c119.07$71 inLost-$71.441,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates13c114.84$15 inLost-$14.83,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates22c101.38$22 inLost-$22.31,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs43c80.24$35 inWon+$45.466,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c51.5$18 inLost-$17.511347.8%54 W · 59 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Pittsburgh Pirates42c47.62$20 inLost-$20.0813144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Chicago Cubs54c40.33$22 inWon+$18.4126854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Chicago Cubs66c25.59$17 inWon+$8.719855.1%109 W · 89 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago Cubs62c16.71$10 inWon+$6.3547345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.