MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726e36a75f70a63f1d4a43070f0e547e66c8d26218271e0137b1479b10ace55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 392.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 328.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 327.3$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 316.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 294.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 286.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 268.31$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Chicago Cubs | 10c | 225.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 192.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 190.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 185.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Chicago Cubs | 18c | 158.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 110.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 86.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 86.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 49.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 34.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 30.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 313 | 53%166 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.