MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a1f299a90b9e06134b99720d2b480d04abf5e701fd2496ff423863b329677c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 1,684$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.75 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 66c | 1,452$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.42 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 1,348$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 53c | 1,289$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.67 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 44c | 1,282$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.19 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 25c | 546.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 428.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 41c | 310$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 43c | 289.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 37c | 168.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 47c | 73.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 70c | 67.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 47c | 61.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Under | 52c | 49.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 41c | 44.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 48c | 43.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdada…b593backed Over | 26c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Over | 32c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 58c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 44c | 24.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.