MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63934bd96fb7e9c182e26709a1300a5d9221f301d005cdd7ae84b7c398d1e6da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 5,618$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.35 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 59c | 3,488$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 60c | 2,897$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.65 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 58c | 777$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.34 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 40c | 700.23$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.09 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 374.74$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 25c | 204.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 41c | 199.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 56c | 184.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Under | 58c | 162.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 41c | 135.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 129.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 40c | 105.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 64c | 69.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 38c | 59.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 58c | 50.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 36c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 60c | 45.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 43c | 37.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 33.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 37c | 31.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 60c | 29.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 39c | 28.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ce…8945backed Under | 63c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 74c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.